Here’s What Happened
Last summer we left Singapore in June for a visit to the US.. At the airport we saw a friend of one of my sons, with his family and dog, moving back to the US. They happened to be on the same flight to Narita that we were. We chatted for a bit about their move and learned that they were moving to the DC area, out near Stirling, VA. We wished everyone well and the boys sadly said goodbye and promised to email each other.
Our family headed to California, then on an odyssey of the East Coast. Six weeks later we were ready to return to Singapore. The day before our flight we checked into a hotel out near Dulles, so that we could get up early the next day and fly back to Singapore.
As we were loading up our rental car to head to the airport, we saw the same family that we had seen on our flight out of Singapore six weeks earlier. They were staying at the same hotel we were while they waited for their sea shipment (with all of their household goods) to arrive from Singapore. I was stunned. What were the chances of running into this family again? Since we were late for the airport, we quickly chatted about how their move was progressing and again the boys had to say another sad farewell.
Here’s My Brain on Math
On the way to the airport I burst out, “Statistics and probability suck.”
The kids chimed in, “Yeah! Why do we have to learn that in school? It sucks.”
My husband quietly shushed me and whispered, “Don’t say that in front of the kids.” Then louder he said, “Statistics and probability give us a lot of information and allow us to make informed decisions.”
I replied, “Yeah, but what were the chances of us running into that family again six weeks later? And that we’d be staying at the same hotel? Like zero. It’s statistically impossible.”
My husband said, “No, it’s statistically improbable. That’s different.”
“Yeah, but in decision making, the statistically improbably gets ruled out as impossible.”
“True. But sometimes the improbable becomes what actually happens..”
“Yeah, how improbable is it that any of us are alive? What’s the probability that my parents’ DNA combined in the exact sequence that produced me? Statistically improbable. Yet every single one of us is statistically improbable. Yet here we all are. Billions of us. That’s a lot of improbability. Infinite improbability.”
My husband smiled. “Isn’t it great? And oh, by the way, I caught that Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy reference.”
“Congratulations. It’s because of the quantums. (That’s a Discworld reference by the way. It’s always impressive to touch on quantum physics in a conversation.) Anyway, why even calculate probability if so many things happen that are improbable? It leads to bad decision making because only the most probable is considered.”
“Bad decisions aren’t caused by math. People make bad decisions.”
“Like Katrina. The Corp didn’t build the levees properly because no Category 5 hurricane had hit New Orleans in forever and the probability of it happening was slim, so they used that information to save money and build crappy levees. This is how decisions are made. Bad decisions based merely on the most probable. So statistics and probability suck. ”
My kids are all, “Yeah!”
Then I turned to them and said, “But you’ll need it if you become doctors. So study it.”
My husband whispered, “I think you are giving them a mixed message.”
“Yes. Yes I am.”
My husband, “…”
“So how impossible is it that we saw those people at our hotel?”
“Improbable. But not impossible.”
“Nah, it’s magic. It’s the only logical explanation. Or God messing with us.”
“Um…”
“Science can’t prove His existence. And math can’t satisfy weird coincidences. What else could it be? Magic or God. It’s the only logical explanation.”
“Or that the statistically improbable is what actually occurs.”
“Or that. You kids! Listen to your dad. Learn math.”
